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IBM

International Business Machines

Thesis status Holding

ConfirmedSupportedHoldingDriftingChallengedBroken

Example thesis

IBM is a steady compounder. Revenue grows above 5% a year in constant currency, the IBM Z mainframe cycle keeps infrastructure revenue growing, and free cash flow grows by about $1B a year.

What Thesis checks

HoldingIBM’s revenue grows above 5% a year in constant currency.
HoldingThe IBM Z mainframe cycle keeps Infrastructure revenue growing.
SupportedIBM’s free cash flow grows by about $1 billion a year.

Events

Jul 9 to Jul 14

DateEventImpact

IBM

International Business Machines

Thesis status Holding

ConfirmedBroken

▼ Material · Press release · Jul 14

Q2 miss breaks the above-5% growth and Z-led Infrastructure path

Every event, weighed against your reasoning.

We read every filing, earnings report, press release and headline the moment it lands, and weigh each one against your position and your reasoning.

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Example thesis

Why do you own this stock?

Here’s what I’ll track

IBM’s revenue grows above 5% a year in constant currency.
The IBM Z mainframe cycle keeps Infrastructure revenue growing.
IBM’s free cash flow grows by about $1 billion a year.

Start analysis

483 events analyzed· 8 touched this thesis

Analyzing events0/483

A sample of the 483 events analyzed

EventDateCompany

SEC filing · 8-K · IBM beats on Q1 profit with EPS up 19% and margin expandingApr 22

News headline · IBM falls 8.3% after a Q1 beat as slower software growth resets the valuationApr 23

SEC filing · 8-K · IBM sets a $10B quantum plan with a 2029 fault-tolerant targetMay 28

News headline · Fed split leaves IBM's 2026 refinancing risk unresolvedJul 11

Press release · IBM pre-announces a Q2 revenue miss, putting July 22 guidance at riskJul 14

SEC filing · 8-K · IBM missed Q2 estimates, with revenue $840M below consensusJul 14

Press release · IBM cuts 2026 revenue growth guide to 4% to 5% from above 5%Jul 22

SEC filing · 8-K · IBM cuts 2026 revenue growth guide to 4% to 5% on weaker client budgetsJul 22

SEC filing · 10-Q · Anthropic’s $100B AWS pact is a small negative for IBM’s AI cloud positionJul 30

Press release · IBM rival Quantinuum wins Oracle Cloud distribution for its Helios quantum systemAug 11

Press release · SMCI export-control probe raises disruption risk for IBM hardware supply chainAug 11

Press release · Broadcom targets IBM's private-AI stack with new VMware AI FactoryAug 31

News headline · Nvidia’s $12.93B Hugging Face deal raises pressure on IBM’s AI platformSep 3

Press release · GlobalFoundries' $21B Malta buildout raises the bar for IBM's foundry ambitionsOct 14

Thesis analysis

Challenged

Revenue growth and mainframe-driven infrastructure have slipped off the original path, while free cash flow is still tracking close to the planned annual step-up. On balance, the thesis now depends on cash delivery more than broad operating momentum.

Analysis breakdown

ChallengedIBM’s revenue grows above 5% a year in constant currency.
Revenue growth above 5% is now challenged because quarterly results missed badly and management cut its constant-currency growth outlook to 4% to 5%, below the thesis target.
BrokenThe IBM Z mainframe cycle keeps Infrastructure revenue growing.
The mainframe cycle keeping Infrastructure revenue growing is broken because mainframe sales swung from strong early growth to a sharp decline and Infrastructure turned down year over year.
SupportedIBM’s free cash flow grows by about $1 billion a year.
Free cash flow growing by about $1 billion a year is supported because first-half cash generation and management's outlook still point to that step-up, helped further by lower cash taxes, despite added investment demands.

Most of the market is noise. We catch what matters.

Most headlines don't change the facts. We surface what's material to the business.

IBM, Q3 2026

406 events scanned.

14 mattered.

IBMCompany alert▼Major

News headlineJul 14

IBM misses Q2 and triggers a 23% premarket selloff

Q2 adjusted EPS missed at $2.93 versus $3.05 expected, and revenue came in at $17.2B versus $17.86B. Shares fell more than 23% premarket after Arvind Krishna said IBM did not move quickly enough, breaking the credibility behind its premium growth story.

IBMCompany alert▼Material

Press releaseJul 22

IBM cuts 2026 revenue growth guide to 4% to 5% from above 5%

IBMCompany alert▼Material

SEC filing · 8-KJul 14

IBM missed Q2 estimates, with revenue $840M below consensus

Every alert links to the filing or release behind it.

How it works.

1
Write your thesis.
In your own words. We turn it into claims we can check.
Example thesis
2
Thesis reads everything.
Every filing, press release and major headline on your stocks, as it lands.
- SEC filing · 10-QAnalyzed
- Press releaseAnalyzed
- Earnings releaseAnalyzed
- Company newsAnalyzed
- SEC filing · 8-KAnalyzed
3
You hear what matters.
An alert when an event supports or challenges one of your claims, with the evidence behind it.
IBMThesis alert▼Material
IBM's 4% to 5% revenue guide breaks the above-5% growth path
Press release · Jul 22
ChallengedIBM’s revenue grows above 5% a year in constant currency.

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